Dogecoin’s ETF buzz wears off – Should DOGE traders brace for $0.12?

Dogecoin’s [DOGE] market action has been a tug‐of‐war lately. Price is stuck under key resistance but has bounced off support, hinting at a fragile but real recovery rhythm in early 2026.

At press time, DOGE was trading between $0.139 and $0.140. It sat just below the key $0.14 level that first acted as support and then flipped into resistance.

Bulls tried to hold their ground at $0.14 during the retest, but the bears defended the level and forced the price back under it. As a result, upward momentum faded.

Momentum weakens near resistance

However, the 7-day SMA has turned downwards above the price and lies near $0.144. It’s evident that short-term momentum has weakened and sellers are pressuring the market.

By contrast, the 200-day SMA remained far above price near prior range highs. That structure confirmed broader bearish control despite brief relief rallies.

Trading volume declined after the recent bounce, showing limited buyer follow-through. RSI hovered near 50, reflecting balance and market indecision.

This left Dogecoin [DOGE] at a technical decision point.

If price remained below $0.14, downside risk could extend toward the $0.13–$0.12 zone. A reclaim of $0.14 with rising volume could stabilize the price and open room toward $0.15.

ETF hype fades as DOGE futures liquidity dries up

Derivatives data showed fading participation following earlier ETF-driven speculation.

CoinGlass data showed DOGE Futures Open Interest rising from roughly $1.5 billion in late June to nearly $6.0 billion by mid-September. During that period, DOGE traded between $0.25 and $0.28.

That momentum failed to persist through the ETF rollout.

By mid-October, Open Interest dropped sharply to around $2.0 billion. It later stabilized near $1.2–$1.4 billion through December and early January.

Binance-specific data reflected a similar pattern.

Binance DOGE Futures Open Interest peaked near $1.15 billion in mid-September. It then fell below $400 million and drifted near $300 million as the price consolidated around $0.14–$0.15.

That shift set up a more fragile liquidity environment. Lower leverage participation could amplify downside during future volatility spikes.

Final Thoughts

• DOGE remains technically weak, with price rejected below $0.14, fading momentum, and declining volume signaling limited buyer follow-through and ongoing downside risk toward $0.13-$0.12.
• Futures data adds to the caution, as sharply lower open interest since the ETF peak reflects reduced leverage and softer institutional interest, limiting the chances of a sustained recovery without fresh catalysts.